{"id":132056,"date":"2025-12-05T08:35:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-05T07:35:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hold.hu\/holdblog\/?p=132056"},"modified":"2025-12-05T09:41:04","modified_gmt":"2025-12-05T08:41:04","slug":"zsiday-viktor-nem-kizart-a-komolyabb-kamatcsokkentes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hold.hu\/holdblog\/zsiday-viktor-nem-kizart-a-komolyabb-kamatcsokkentes\/","title":{"rendered":"Zsiday Viktor: Nem kiz\u00e1rt a komolyabb kamatcs\u00f6kkent\u00e9s"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az elm\u00falt \u00e9vben nagyon sok jegybank cs\u00f6kkentette az ir\u00e1nyad\u00f3 kamatszinteket, k\u00f6zt\u00fck az amerikai is, \u00e1m val\u00f3j\u00e1ban a monet\u00e1ris kond\u00edci\u00f3k nem felt\u00e9tlen\u00fcl javultak, s\u0151t val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171leg sok szegmensben szigorodnak is az Egyes\u00fclt \u00c1llamokban, \u00e9s r\u00e9szben ez az oka a K-alak\u00fa gazdas\u00e1gnak, miszerint a gazdas\u00e1g egyik szegmense \u2013 els\u0151sorban az AI-kapcsolt c\u00e9gek \u2013 nagy beruh\u00e1z\u00e1si boomban vannak, mik\u00f6zben a gazdas\u00e1g t\u00f6bbi r\u00e9sze ink\u00e1bb szenved: a munkan\u00e9lk\u00fclis\u00e9g lassan n\u0151, a c\u00e9gek nem l\u00e1tj\u00e1k a fellend\u00fcl\u00e9st.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Az amerikai gazdas\u00e1g strukt\u00far\u00e1j\u00e1ra ismert m\u00f3don jellemz\u0151, hogy er\u0151sen t\u0151kepiac-k\u00f6zpont\u00fa, szemben p\u00e9ld\u00e1ul a sokkal bankcentrikusabb Eur\u00f3p\u00e1val. A c\u00e9gek nagy m\u00e9rt\u00e9kben a k\u00f6tv\u00e9nypiacr\u00f3l finansz\u00edrozz\u00e1k magukat, \u00e9s a lakoss\u00e1gi jelz\u00e1logpiac hozamszintje is a t\u0151kepiac \u00e1ltal meghat\u00e1rozott. R\u00e1ad\u00e1sul a finansz\u00edroz\u00e1s jellemz\u0151en hosszabb t\u00e1v\u00fa: a v\u00e1llalati k\u00f6tv\u00e9nyek 5-10 \u00e9vesek, a jelz\u00e1loghitelek jellemz\u0151en 30. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-wp-embed is-provider-holdblog wp-block-embed-holdblog\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"40uPbPWQDj\"><a href=\"https:\/\/hold.hu\/holdblog\/nincs-magyar-piac-szoval-bizalmi-valsag-sem-lehet\/\">Nincs is magyar piac, sz\u00f3val bizalmi v\u00e1ls\u00e1g sem lehet<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"&#8220;Nincs is magyar piac, sz\u00f3val bizalmi v\u00e1ls\u00e1g sem lehet&#8221; &#8212; HOLDBLOG\" src=\"https:\/\/hold.hu\/holdblog\/nincs-magyar-piac-szoval-bizalmi-valsag-sem-lehet\/embed\/#?secret=9gN2AbyOnq#?secret=40uPbPWQDj\" data-secret=\"40uPbPWQDj\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Miut\u00e1n a 2010-es \u00e9vekben v\u00e9gig nagyon alacsony kamatszint volt, a v\u00e1llalatok \u00e9s a lakoss\u00e1g is nagy mennyis\u00e9gben vett fel hitelt alacsony kamatokon, ami azt jelentette, hogy a teljes hitel\u00e1llom\u00e1ny kamatszintje igen alacsonny\u00e1 v\u00e1lt. 2021-22-t\u0151l megugrottak a hozamok, \u00e9s b\u00e1r a nagy jegybankok imm\u00e1r b\u0151 egy \u00e9ve v\u00e1gj\u00e1k a kamatszintet, ez a kamatszint, \u00e9s a hozz\u00e1tartoz\u00f3 v\u00e1llalati finansz\u00edroz\u00e1si \u00e9s jelz\u00e1loghozamok m\u00e9g mindig j\u00f3val magasabbak, mint amelyek r\u00e9gen voltak jellemz\u0151ek. Mivel a r\u00e9gi, alacsony kamatoz\u00e1s\u00fa ad\u00f3ss\u00e1gok lassan kifutnak \u00e9s az akkori, 0 k\u00f6r\u00fcli hozamszintre jellemz\u0151 hitelekn\u00e9l csak j\u00f3val dr\u00e1g\u00e1bban lehet \u00faj hitelt felvenni, \u00edgy a hitelek teljes, \u00e1tlagos hozamszintje folyamatosan n\u0151 \u2013 annak ellen\u00e9re, hogy a jegybank v\u00e1g.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Neh\u00e9z pontos sz\u00e1mokat mondani, \u00e9s nem is ez a c\u00e9l, de nagys\u00e1grendileg szeretn\u00e9m \u00e9rz\u00e9keltetni, hogy mir\u0151l van sz\u00f3, ez\u00e9rt elk\u00e9sz\u00edtettem egy \u00e1br\u00e1t, amely megbecs\u00fcli, hogy a BBB besorol\u00e1s\u00fa teljes v\u00e1llalati k\u00f6tv\u00e9ny\u00e1llom\u00e1ny ut\u00e1n milyen kamatokat kell \u00e1tlagosan fizetnie a kibocs\u00e1t\u00f3knak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/zsiday.hu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/corpyield.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2623\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">J\u00f3l l\u00e1tszik, hogy hi\u00e1ba v\u00e1gja a r\u00f6vid lej\u00e1rat\u00fa kamatokat az amerikai jegybank, a r\u00e9gi nagyon alacsony kamatoz\u00e1s\u00fa k\u00f6tv\u00e9nyek kifut\u00e1s\u00e1val \u00e9s \u00faj, magasabb kamatoz\u00e1s\u00faak kibocs\u00e1t\u00e1s\u00e1val m\u00e9g \u00edgy is n\u0151 a v\u00e1llalatok kamatterhe. Ugyanez hatv\u00e1nyozottan igaz a lakoss\u00e1gra is, ahol a 30-\u00e9ves jelz\u00e1logpap\u00edrok \u00e1t\u00e1raz\u00f3d\u00e1sa m\u00e9g \u00e9vekig fog tartani, az \u00e1tlagos kamatszint n\u0151 \u2013 r\u00e9szben ez\u00e9rt is gyenge az amerikai lak\u00e1spiac is (m\u00e1sodik \u00e1bra).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/zsiday.hu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/housingstarts-1024x409.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2624\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mindez a hossz\u00fa \u00e9veken \u00e1t nulla k\u00f6zel\u00e9ben tartott kamatszint k\u00f6vetkezm\u00e9nye: olyan sokan vettek f\u00f6l nagyon olcs\u00f3 hiteleket, hogy most hi\u00e1ba van kamatv\u00e1g\u00e1s, m\u00e9g mindig rosszabb helyzetbe ker\u00fcl a lakoss\u00e1g\/v\u00e1llalatok nagy r\u00e9sze, mint volt. Ez azt jelenti, hogy a jegybanki kamatcs\u00f6kkent\u00e9s ellen\u00e9re a monet\u00e1ris politika m\u00e9gis megszor\u00edt, \u00e9s r\u00e9szben ennek az eredm\u00e9nye a gazdas\u00e1gi lassul\u00e1s \u00e9s a munkan\u00e9lk\u00fclis\u00e9g n\u00f6veked\u00e9se. Mivel a folyamat tov\u00e1bbra is zajlik, nem lenne meglep\u0151, ha a gazdas\u00e1g \u2013 a termetes AI szektort kiv\u00e9ve \u2013 recesszi\u00f3ba cs\u00faszna, ami miatt a Fed ak\u00e1r komolyabb tov\u00e1bbi kamatcs\u00f6kkent\u00e9sre is k\u00e9nyszer\u00fclhet 2026-ban.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nyilv\u00e1nval\u00f3an ez igen spekulat\u00edv \u00e9s \u0151szint\u00e9n sz\u00f3lva nincs is ezzel kapcsolatban er\u0151s meggy\u0151z\u0151d\u00e9sem, de lehet, hogy \u00e9rdemes elgondolkodni azon, amir\u0151l m\u00e1r r\u00e9gebben is \u00edrtam, miszerint jelenleg a fejlett orsz\u00e1gokban \u2013 k\u00fcl\u00f6n\u00f6sen ahol sok hossz\u00fa, fix lej\u00e1rat\u00fa hitel van \u2013 a monet\u00e1ris politika m\u00e9g a szok\u00e1sosn\u00e1l is hosszabb \u00e1tt\u00e9tekkel hat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Forr\u00e1s: <a href=\"https:\/\/zsiday.hu\/2025\/10\/28\/versenykepessegi-harapofogoban-az-eu\/\">zsiday.hu<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Zsiday Viktor t\u00f6bb \u00edr\u00e1s\u00e1t \u00e9s szeml\u00e9j\u00e9t <a href=\"https:\/\/hold.hu\/holdblog\/author\/citadella\/\">itt b\u00f6ng\u00e9szheted a HOLDBLOG-on<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Az elm\u00falt \u00e9vben nagyon sok jegybank cs\u00f6kkentette az ir\u00e1nyad\u00f3 kamatszinteket, k\u00f6zt\u00fck az amerikai is, \u00e1m val\u00f3j\u00e1ban a monet\u00e1ris kond\u00edci\u00f3k nem felt\u00e9tlen\u00fcl javultak, s\u0151t val\u00f3sz\u00edn\u0171leg sok&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":132061,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[2622,3071,63],"class_list":["post-132056","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-citadella","tag-fed","tag-kamatcsokkentes","tag-portfolioblogger"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - 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