{"id":134715,"date":"2026-04-30T09:56:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-30T07:56:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hold.hu\/holdblog\/?p=134715"},"modified":"2026-04-30T09:56:08","modified_gmt":"2026-04-30T07:56:08","slug":"bb-tengely-koltsegvetesi-egyenleg","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hold.hu\/holdblog\/bb-tengely-koltsegvetesi-egyenleg\/","title":{"rendered":"Deficit \u00e9s fegyelem k\u00f6z\u00f6tt \u2013 a k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si egyenleg h\u00e1rom \u00e9vtizede"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

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K\u00e9t nagy v\u00e1ls\u00e1g befoly\u00e1solta a Baltikum-Balk\u00e1n tengely k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si politik\u00e1j\u00e1t: 2008 \u00e9s 2020, de a t\u00e9rs\u00e9g mindk\u00e9t esetben konszolid\u00e1lni tudta az egyenlegeket. Magyarorsz\u00e1g k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si p\u00e1ly\u00e1ja a r\u00e9gi\u00f3n bel\u00fcl saj\u00e1tos \u00edvet mutat. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Az \u00e1llamh\u00e1ztart\u00e1s egyenlege a gazdas\u00e1gpolitika egyik leg\u00e1rulkod\u00f3bb lenyomata. Megmutatja, hogy egy orsz\u00e1g t\u00f6bbet k\u00f6lt-e, mint amennyit beszed, \u00e9s hogy a k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si fegyelem mennyire k\u00e9pes \u00e1tv\u00e9szelni a v\u00e1ls\u00e1gos id\u0151szakokat. A BB tengely tizenegy orsz\u00e1g\u00e1nak elm\u00falt h\u00e1rom \u00e9vtizede e tekintetben s\u0171r\u0171 tanuls\u00e1gokkal szolg\u00e1l: a rendszerv\u00e1lt\u00e1s ut\u00e1ni konszolid\u00e1ci\u00f3t\u00f3l a 2008-as p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi v\u00e1ls\u00e1gon \u00e9s a koronav\u00edrus-j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny fisk\u00e1lis sokkj\u00e1n \u00e1t eg\u00e9szen a jelenlegi k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si helyzetig.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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K\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si egyenleg<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Az \u00e1llam bev\u00e9telei (ad\u00f3k, j\u00e1rul\u00e9kok) \u00e9s kiad\u00e1sai (k\u00f6zszolg\u00e1ltat\u00e1sok, szoci\u00e1lis juttat\u00e1sok, beruh\u00e1z\u00e1sok) k\u00f6z\u00f6tti k\u00fcl\u00f6nbs\u00e9g. Ha a bev\u00e9telek meghaladj\u00e1k a kiad\u00e1sokat, t\u00f6bbletr\u0151l, ellenkez\u0151 esetben hi\u00e1nyr\u00f3l besz\u00e9l\u00fcnk \u2013 ut\u00f3bbi eset\u00e9n az \u00e1llam hitelt vesz fel a k\u00fcl\u00f6nbs\u00e9g fedez\u00e9s\u00e9re.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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K\u00f6zel harminc \u00e9vvel ezel\u0151tt, 1997-ben a t\u00e9rs\u00e9g megosztott k\u00e9pet mutatott. \u00c9sztorsz\u00e1g, Bulg\u00e1ria, Horv\u00e1torsz\u00e1g \u00e9s Lettorsz\u00e1g enyhe t\u00f6bblettel vagy kiegyens\u00falyozott k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9ssel rendelkezett, m\u00edg Litv\u00e1nia k\u00f6zel tizenk\u00e9t sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos GDP-ar\u00e1nyos hi\u00e1nnyal a r\u00e9gi\u00f3 legs\u00falyosabb poz\u00edci\u00f3j\u00e1t foglalta el. Szlov\u00e1kia hat, Magyarorsz\u00e1g \u00f6t \u00e9s f\u00e9l, Lengyelorsz\u00e1g \u00e9s Rom\u00e1nia n\u00e9gy-n\u00e9gy \u00e9s f\u00e9l sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos deficitet mutatott. A BB tengely \u00e1tlaga k\u00f6zel h\u00e1rom sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos hi\u00e1nyn\u00e1l \u00e1llt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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A 2008-as p\u00e9nz\u00fcgyi v\u00e1ls\u00e1g a k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si egyenlegeket az eg\u00e9sz t\u00e9rs\u00e9gben dr\u00e1maian rontotta. A BB tengely \u00e1tlaga a v\u00e1ls\u00e1g el\u0151tti egy-k\u00e9t sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos hi\u00e1nyr\u00f3l k\u00f6zel hat sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra ugrott. A legm\u00e9lyebb zuhan\u00e1st Lettorsz\u00e1g szenvedte el: 2010-re a deficit k\u00f6zel kilenc sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra t\u00e1gult, de Rom\u00e1nia, Lengyelorsz\u00e1g \u00e9s Litv\u00e1nia is h\u00e9t sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k k\u00f6r\u00fcli hi\u00e1nnyal z\u00e1rt. \u00c9sztorsz\u00e1g ebben az id\u0151szakban is kit\u0171nt: mind\u00f6ssze f\u00e9l sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos hi\u00e1nnyal v\u00e9szelte \u00e1t a v\u00e1ls\u00e1got, meg\u0151rizve a r\u00e9gi\u00f3 legjobb poz\u00edci\u00f3j\u00e1t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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A t\u00edzes \u00e9vek k\u00f6zep\u00e9t\u0151l a t\u00e9rs\u00e9g nagy r\u00e9sze konszolid\u00e1ci\u00f3s p\u00e1ly\u00e1ra \u00e1llt. 2017 \u00e9s 2019 k\u00f6z\u00f6tt t\u00f6bb orsz\u00e1g – k\u00f6zt\u00fck Bulg\u00e1ria, Csehorsz\u00e1g, Horv\u00e1torsz\u00e1g \u00e9s Litv\u00e1nia – kiegyens\u00falyozott vagy enyhe t\u00f6bbletet mutat\u00f3 k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9ssel rendelkezett. A BB tengely \u00e1tlagos hi\u00e1nya f\u00e9l sz\u00e1zal\u00e9k al\u00e1 cs\u00f6kkent, ami a vizsg\u00e1lt h\u00e1rom \u00e9vtized legjobb id\u0151szaka volt. A kiv\u00e9telt Rom\u00e1nia \u00e9s Magyarorsz\u00e1g jelentette: el\u0151bbi n\u00e9gy \u00e9s f\u00e9l, ut\u00f3bbi k\u00e9t sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos deficitet mutatott 2019-ben is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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A koronav\u00edrus-j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny ezt a konszolid\u00e1ci\u00f3t egy csap\u00e1sra fel\u00fcl\u00edrta. 2020-ban a BB tengely \u00e1tlaga hat \u00e9s f\u00e9l sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos hi\u00e1nyra ugrott, ami a teljes vizsg\u00e1lt id\u0151szak legrosszabb \u00e1tlaga volt. Rom\u00e1nia k\u00f6zel t\u00edz, Szlov\u00e9nia k\u00f6zel nyolc, Magyarorsz\u00e1g h\u00e9t \u00e9s f\u00e9l sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos deficitet produk\u00e1lt. A legkisebb roml\u00e1st Bulg\u00e1ria mutatta, ahol a hi\u00e1ny nem eg\u00e9szen n\u00e9gy sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kra emelkedett.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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A jelenlegi, 2025-\u00f6s adatok figyelemre m\u00e9lt\u00f3 fordulatot mutatnak: a BB tengely mind a tizenegy orsz\u00e1ga pozit\u00edv egyenleggel rendelkezik. Ez a k\u00e9t \u00e9vtized sor\u00e1n nem tapasztalt helyzet r\u00e9szben a k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si kiigaz\u00edt\u00e1sok, r\u00e9szben a gazdas\u00e1gi n\u00f6veked\u00e9s hat\u00e1s\u00e1nak tudhat\u00f3 be. Rom\u00e1nia jelenleg k\u00f6zel h\u00e9t sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos t\u00f6bblettel a rangsor \u00e9l\u00e9n \u00e1ll – ami k\u00fcl\u00f6n\u00f6sen felt\u0171n\u0151, tekintettel arra, hogy 2024-ben m\u00e9g kilenc sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos deficit jellemezte az orsz\u00e1got. A rangsorban ez t\u00edz helynyi javul\u00e1s \u00f6t \u00e9v alatt, ami a t\u00e9rs\u00e9g legnagyobb pozit\u00edv elmozdul\u00e1sa. \u00c9sztorsz\u00e1g k\u00f6zel \u00f6t, Horv\u00e1torsz\u00e1g \u00e9s Magyarorsz\u00e1g n\u00e9gy \u00e9s f\u00e9l sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos t\u00f6bbletet mutat. A rangsor alj\u00e1n Csehorsz\u00e1g \u00e9s Szlov\u00e9nia \u00e1ll, igaz, k\u00e9t \u00e9s f\u00e9l sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos t\u00f6bblettel, ami abszol\u00fat \u00e9rtelemben szint\u00e9n kedvez\u0151.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Magyarorsz\u00e1g k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si p\u00e1ly\u00e1ja a r\u00e9gi\u00f3n bel\u00fcl saj\u00e1tos \u00edvet mutat. Harminc \u00e9vvel ezel\u0151tt a kilencedik helyen \u00e1llt \u00f6t \u00e9s f\u00e9l sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos deficittel, \u00e9s a poz\u00edci\u00f3 a k\u00f6vetkez\u0151 k\u00e9t \u00e9vtizedben sem javult \u00e9rdemben: 2020-ban a kilencedik helyen \u00e1llt h\u00e9t \u00e9s f\u00e9l sz\u00e1zal\u00e9kos hi\u00e1nnyal. Jelenleg a harmadik helyre l\u00e9pett el\u0151re, ami hat helynyi javul\u00e1st jelent \u00f6t \u00e9v alatt, \u00e9s a k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si egyenleg pozit\u00edvba fordult.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

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A h\u00e1rom \u00e9vtizedes adatsor legfontosabb tanuls\u00e1ga, hogy a k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si fegyelem a BB tengely orsz\u00e1gaiban nem \u00e1lland\u00f3, hanem ciklikus jelleg\u0171. A v\u00e1ls\u00e1gok rendre fel\u00fcl\u00edrj\u00e1k a konszolid\u00e1ci\u00f3s er\u0151fesz\u00edt\u00e9seket, de a helyre\u00e1ll\u00e1s \u00fcteme \u00e9s m\u00e9lys\u00e9ge orsz\u00e1gonk\u00e9nt elt\u00e9r\u0151. \u00c9sztorsz\u00e1g \u00e9s Bulg\u00e1ria tart\u00f3san fegyelmezettebb fisk\u00e1lis poz\u00edci\u00f3t tart, m\u00edg Rom\u00e1nia, Magyarorsz\u00e1g \u00e9s Lengyelorsz\u00e1g eset\u00e9ben a hi\u00e1ny m\u00e9rt\u00e9ke a r\u00e9gi\u00f3 \u00e1tlag\u00e1n\u00e1l tart\u00f3san magasabb volt – b\u00e1r a legfrissebb adatok \u00e9ppen ezekben az orsz\u00e1gokban mutatj\u00e1k a legmark\u00e1nsabb fordulatot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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A BB Tengely<\/em> a Baltikum \u00e9s a Balk\u00e1n orsz\u00e1gainak teljes\u00edtm\u00e9ny\u00e9t veti \u00f6ssze \u00e9vtizedes t\u00e1vlatban<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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A sorozat t\u00f6bbi r\u00e9sz\u00e9t itt tal\u00e1lod<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

K\u00e9t nagy v\u00e1ls\u00e1g befoly\u00e1solta a Baltikum-Balk\u00e1n tengely k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si politik\u00e1j\u00e1t: 2008 \u00e9s 2020, de a t\u00e9rs\u00e9g mindk\u00e9t esetben konszolid\u00e1lni tudta az egyenlegeket. Magyarorsz\u00e1g k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si p\u00e1ly\u00e1ja a…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":281,"featured_media":134716,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5354,5370],"tags":[5373,63],"class_list":["post-134715","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bb-tengely","category-gazdasag","tag-bb-tengely","tag-portfolioblogger"],"yoast_head":"\nDeficit \u00e9s fegyelem k\u00f6z\u00f6tt \u2013 a k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9si egyenleg h\u00e1rom \u00e9vtizede - HOLDBLOG<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"2008 \u00e9s 2020: k\u00e9t nagy v\u00e1ls\u00e1g, ami a BB tengely orsz\u00e1gainak k\u00f6lts\u00e9gvet\u00e9s\u00e9t \u00e9rte. 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