{"id":137518,"date":"2026-10-08T10:20:40","date_gmt":"2026-10-08T08:20:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hold.hu\/holdblog\/?p=137518"},"modified":"2026-10-08T10:20:43","modified_gmt":"2026-10-08T08:20:43","slug":"bb-tengely-eloregedes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hold.hu\/holdblog\/bb-tengely-eloregedes\/","title":{"rendered":"A Ratk\u00f3-korszak ma is alak\u00edtja Magyarorsz\u00e1g demogr\u00e1fiai hely\u00e9t"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Harminc \u00e9ve m\u00e9g t\u00f6bb mint \u00f6t munkak\u00e9pes kor\u00fa jutott egy id\u0151skor\u00fara a BB tengely orsz\u00e1gaiban, ma m\u00e1r alig h\u00e1rom. A r\u00e9gi\u00f3 minden orsz\u00e1ga id\u0151s\u00f6dik, de nem egyform\u00e1n: a sz\u00fclet\u00e9si hull\u00e1mok, az elv\u00e1ndorl\u00e1s \u00e9s a t\u00f6rt\u00e9nelmi fordul\u00f3pontok m\u00e1s-m\u00e1s p\u00e1ly\u00e1t rajzolnak ki. Magyarorsz\u00e1g p\u00e9ld\u00e1ul a Ratk\u00f3-korszak \u00f6r\u00f6ks\u00e9ge miatt ma eg\u00e9szen m\u00e1shol \u00e1ll a rangsorban, mint h\u00e1rom \u00e9vtizede.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Harminc \u00e9vvel ezel\u0151tt a BB tengely orsz\u00e1gaiban egy 65 \u00e9v feletti lakosra \u00e1tlagosan t\u00f6bb mint \u00f6t munkak\u00e9pes kor\u00fa jutott, ma alig h\u00e1rom. A v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1s egyszerre t\u00fckr\u00f6zi a hosszabbod\u00f3 \u00e9letet, a tart\u00f3san alacsony sz\u00fclet\u00e9ssz\u00e1mot \u00e9s a fiatalok elv\u00e1ndorl\u00e1s\u00e1t<\/a> \u2013 \u00e9s a r\u00e9gi\u00f3 minden orsz\u00e1g\u00e1ban ugyanabba az ir\u00e1nyba mutat, csak elt\u00e9r\u0151 temp\u00f3ban \u00e9s elt\u00e9r\u0151 okokb\u00f3l. A r\u00e9szletekben ugyanis \u00e9vtizedekkel kor\u00e1bbi sz\u00fclet\u00e9si hull\u00e1mok, t\u00f6rt\u00e9nelmi fordul\u00f3pontok \u00e9s uni\u00f3s csatlakoz\u00e1sok lenyomata is kirajzol\u00f3dik.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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A most vizsg\u00e1lt id\u0151skori eltartotts\u00e1gi r\u00e1ta azt mutatja meg, h\u00e1ny 65 \u00e9ves vagy id\u0151sebb ember jut sz\u00e1z 15\u201364 \u00e9ves, vagyis munkak\u00e9pes kor\u00fa lakosra. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

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A mutat\u00f3 tiszt\u00e1n demogr\u00e1fiai: a World Bank m\u00f3dszertani le\u00edr\u00e1sa is hangs\u00falyozza, hogy csak a n\u00e9pess\u00e9g kor\u00f6sszet\u00e9tel\u00e9t t\u00fckr\u00f6zi, a t\u00e9nyleges gazdas\u00e1gi eltart\u00e1st nem, hiszen nem minden munkak\u00e9pes kor\u00fa dolgozik, \u00e9s sok 65 \u00e9v feletti m\u00e9g akt\u00edv. A magasabb \u00e9rt\u00e9k id\u0151sebb korszerkezetet jelez. A rangsort \u00fagy \u00e1ll\u00edtottuk fel, hogy a legfiatalabb korszerkezet\u0171, azaz a legalacsonyabb r\u00e1t\u00e1j\u00fa orsz\u00e1g \u00e1lljon az \u00e9len; ez nem \u00e9rt\u00e9k\u00edt\u00e9let, hiszen az id\u0151s\u00f6d\u00e9s r\u00e9szben a hosszabb \u00e9let k\u00f6vetkezm\u00e9nye.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A r\u00e9gi\u00f3s \u00e1tlag 1995-ben 19,2 volt, 2010-ben 23,8, 2020-ban 30,7, 2025-ben pedig 33,5. A n\u00f6veked\u00e9s nem volt egyenletes: az els\u0151 tizen\u00f6t \u00e9vben mintegy n\u00e9gy \u00e9s f\u00e9l egys\u00e9ggel, az ut\u00f3bbi tizen\u00f6tben viszont csaknem t\u00edzzel emelkedett, vagyis az id\u0151s\u00f6d\u00e9s az elm\u00falt m\u00e1sf\u00e9l \u00e9vtizedben felgyorsult. A mutat\u00f3 a r\u00e9gi\u00f3 mind a tizenegy orsz\u00e1g\u00e1ban n\u0151tt, kiv\u00e9tel n\u00e9lk\u00fcl. Az okok j\u00f3l ismertek: a v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 \u00e9lettartam \u2013 amely kor\u00e1bbi elemz\u00e9s\u00fcnk szerint harminc \u00e9v alatt csaknem nyolc \u00e9vvel n\u0151tt a r\u00e9gi\u00f3ban \u2013, a rendszerv\u00e1lt\u00e1s \u00f3ta tart\u00f3san alacsony term\u00e9kenys\u00e9g \u00e9s az elv\u00e1ndorl\u00e1s. Az Eur\u00f3pai Bizotts\u00e1g 2024-es el\u00f6reged\u00e9si jelent\u00e9se<\/a> szerint 2000 \u00e9s 2021 k\u00f6z\u00f6tt Litv\u00e1ni\u00e1ban, Lettorsz\u00e1gban, Rom\u00e1ni\u00e1ban, Bulg\u00e1ri\u00e1ban, Horv\u00e1torsz\u00e1gban \u00e9s \u00c9sztorsz\u00e1gban \u00e1tlagosan negat\u00edv volt a v\u00e1ndorl\u00e1si egyenleg; mivel jellemz\u0151en fiatal feln\u0151ttek t\u00e1voznak, a kiv\u00e1ndorl\u00e1s a munkak\u00e9pes kor\u00faak sz\u00e1m\u00e1t cs\u00f6kkentve k\u00f6zvetlen\u00fcl emeli a mutat\u00f3t.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A rangsor \u00e9l\u00e9n mind a n\u00e9gy vizsg\u00e1lt \u00e9vben Szlov\u00e1kia \u00e1ll: a r\u00e9gi\u00f3 legfiatalabb korszerkezet\u0171 orsz\u00e1g\u00e1ban ma sz\u00e1z munkak\u00e9pes kor\u00fara 29,1 id\u0151s jut. M\u00f6g\u00f6tte Rom\u00e1nia (31,3), majd Litv\u00e1nia \u00e9s Lengyelorsz\u00e1g k\u00f6vetkezik, kerek\u00edtve egyar\u00e1nt 32,0-\u00e1s \u00e9rt\u00e9kkel. Szlov\u00e1kia sem marad ki az id\u0151s\u00f6d\u00e9sb\u0151l: a mutat\u00f3 itt is csaknem 13 egys\u00e9ggel n\u0151tt harminc \u00e9v alatt, az elm\u00falt \u00f6t \u00e9vben pedig a r\u00e9gi\u00f3 egyik leggyorsabb \u00fctem\u00e9ben n\u0151tt. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Lengyelorsz\u00e1g p\u00e1ly\u00e1ja a legfordulatosabb. A lengyel mutat\u00f3 2006 \u00e9s 2010 k\u00f6z\u00f6tt gyakorlatilag nem v\u00e1ltozott, 19 k\u00f6r\u00fcl mozgott, ezt k\u00f6vet\u0151en viszont a r\u00e9gi\u00f3 leggyorsabb id\u0151s\u00f6d\u00e9se indult: 2010 \u00e9s 2025 k\u00f6z\u00f6tt 19,0-r\u0151l 32,0-ra n\u0151tt, az elm\u00falt \u00f6t \u00e9vben 4,8 egys\u00e9ggel, ami a mez\u0151ny legnagyobb \u00f6t\u00e9ves emelked\u00e9se. Az Eur\u00f3pai Bizotts\u00e1g el\u00f6reged\u00e9si jelent\u00e9s\u00e9nek<\/a> lengyel orsz\u00e1gfejezete szerint a lengyel korszerkezetet k\u00e9t sz\u00fclet\u00e9si hull\u00e1m form\u00e1lja: az 1950-es \u00e9vek h\u00e1bor\u00fa ut\u00e1ni baby boomja \u00e9s annak visszhangja, az 1980-as \u00e9vek elej\u00e9n sz\u00fcletettek nemzed\u00e9ke. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Az el\u0151bbi az elm\u00falt \u00e9vekben l\u00e9pte \u00e1t a 65 \u00e9ves \u2013 ez hajtja most fel a mutat\u00f3t.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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A magyar p\u00e1lya saj\u00e1tos<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

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Magyarorsz\u00e1g az \u00f6t\u00f6dik helyen \u00e1ll 32,8-as \u00e9rt\u00e9kkel, harminc \u00e9ves p\u00e1ly\u00e1ja azonban a r\u00e9gi\u00f3 egyik legsaj\u00e1tosabb demogr\u00e1fiai lenyomata. 1995-ben a magyar korszerkezet m\u00e9g a m\u00e1sodik legid\u0151sebb volt a r\u00e9gi\u00f3ban, az\u00f3ta viszont itt n\u0151tt a legkev\u00e9sb\u00e9 a mutat\u00f3 (11,8 egys\u00e9ggel), \u00edgy az orsz\u00e1g \u00f6t helyet l\u00e9pett el\u0151re. A h\u00e1tt\u00e9rben a Ratk\u00f3-korszak \u00f6r\u00f6ks\u00e9ge \u00e1ll. A KSH N\u00e9pess\u00e9gtudom\u00e1nyi Kutat\u00f3int\u00e9zet\u00e9nek kiadv\u00e1nya<\/a> szerint az 1950-es \u00e9vek elej\u00e9nek n\u00e9pesed\u00e9spolitik\u00e1ja kiugr\u00f3an n\u00e9pes \u00e9vj\u00e1ratokat hozott – 1954 m\u00e1jus\u00e1ban egyetlen h\u00f3nap alatt 20 344 gyermek sz\u00fcletett, ami a h\u00e1bor\u00fa ut\u00e1ni id\u0151szak havi rekordja -, gyermekeik, a \u201eRatk\u00f3-unok\u00e1k\u201d pedig 1973 \u00e9s 1977 k\u00f6z\u00f6tt \u00fajabb sz\u00fclet\u00e9si hull\u00e1mot alkottak. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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A kett\u0151s hull\u00e1m az adatokban is kirajzol\u00f3dik: az 1950 \u00e9s 1956 k\u00f6z\u00f6tt sz\u00fcletettek 2015 \u00e9s 2021 k\u00f6z\u00f6tt t\u00f6lt\u00f6tt\u00e9k be a 65. \u00e9let\u00e9v\u00fcket, \u00e9s a magyar mutat\u00f3 \u00e9ppen ekkor gyorsult fel, 2014 \u00e9s 2021 k\u00f6z\u00f6tt 26,1-r\u0151l 31,4-re. Az\u00f3ta, hogy a n\u00e9pes \u00e9vj\u00e1ratok \u00e1tl\u00e9pt\u00e9k ezt a hat\u00e1rt, lassabban emelkedik. A Ratk\u00f3-unok\u00e1k ma m\u00e9g a munkak\u00e9pes koroszt\u00e1lyt er\u0151s\u00edtik, \u0151k 2038 \u00e9s 2042 k\u00f6z\u00f6tt \u00e9rik el a 65 \u00e9ves kort.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

A rangsor v\u00e9g\u00e9n ma Horv\u00e1torsz\u00e1g \u00e1ll: sz\u00e1z munkak\u00e9pes kor\u00fara 37,7 id\u0151s jut, ami a r\u00e9gi\u00f3 legid\u0151sebb korszerkezete. Harminc \u00e9ve m\u00e9g a k\u00f6z\u00e9pmez\u0151nyben volt, az\u00f3ta azonban itt n\u0151tt a legt\u00f6bbet a mutat\u00f3, 17,6 egys\u00e9ggel. Az OECD 2026-os horv\u00e1torsz\u00e1gi orsz\u00e1gjelent\u00e9se<\/a> szerint az elv\u00e1ndorl\u00e1s a 2013-as uni\u00f3s csatlakoz\u00e1s ut\u00e1n ism\u00e9t felgyorsult – 2013 \u00e9s 2023 k\u00f6z\u00f6tt \u00e9vente \u00e1tlagosan k\u00f6zel 38 ezren hagyt\u00e1k el az orsz\u00e1got -, \u00e9s csak 2022-t\u0151l haladta meg a bev\u00e1ndorl\u00e1s a kiv\u00e1ndorl\u00e1st, tizen\u00f6t \u00e9v ut\u00e1n el\u0151sz\u00f6r. El\u0151tte Lettorsz\u00e1g (35,4), valamint Szlov\u00e9nia \u00e9s Bulg\u00e1ria (kerek\u00edtve egyar\u00e1nt 35,1) k\u00f6vetkezik. Szlov\u00e9nia szint\u00e9n meredek utat j\u00e1rt be: 1995-ben m\u00e9g a harmadik legfiatalabb korszerkezet\u0171 orsz\u00e1g volt, m\u00e1ra \u00f6t helyet cs\u00faszott h\u00e1tr\u00e9bb. Bulg\u00e1ria p\u00e1ly\u00e1ja ennek t\u00fck\u00f6rk\u00e9pe: harminc \u00e9ve a r\u00e9gi\u00f3 legid\u0151sebb korszerkezet\u00e9vel rendelkezett, az\u00f3ta viszont az egyik legm\u00e9rs\u00e9keltebb \u00fctemben id\u0151s\u00f6d\u00f6tt. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A harminc \u00e9ves adatsor egyir\u00e1ny\u00fa: a r\u00e9gi\u00f3 minden orsz\u00e1ga id\u0151s\u00f6dik, \u00e9s a folyamat az elm\u00falt m\u00e1sf\u00e9l \u00e9vtizedben felgyorsult. A k\u00fcl\u00f6nbs\u00e9gek ma j\u00f3r\u00e9szt nem abban rejlenek, hogy egy orsz\u00e1g id\u0151s\u00f6dik-e, hanem abban, mikor l\u00e9pik \u00e1t n\u00e9pes sz\u00fclet\u00e9si \u00e9vj\u00e1ratai a 65 \u00e9ves kort, \u00e9s mennyi fiatal hagyta el k\u00f6zben az orsz\u00e1got. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Mivel a mutat\u00f3 csak a kor\u00f6sszet\u00e9telt m\u00e9ri, a t\u00e9nyleges terhet az is alak\u00edtja, h\u00e1nyan dolgoznak a munkak\u00e9pes kor\u00faak k\u00f6z\u00fcl, \u00e9s meddig maradnak akt\u00edvak az id\u0151sebbek – a korszerkezet v\u00e1ltoz\u00e1s\u00e1nak ir\u00e1ny\u00e1t azonban ezek a t\u00e9nyez\u0151k nem \u00edrj\u00e1k fel\u00fcl.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

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A BB Tengely<\/em> a Baltikum \u00e9s a Balk\u00e1n orsz\u00e1gainak teljes\u00edtm\u00e9ny\u00e9t veti \u00f6ssze \u00e9vtizedes t\u00e1vlatban<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A sorozat t\u00f6bbi r\u00e9sz\u00e9t itt tal\u00e1lod<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Harminc \u00e9ve m\u00e9g t\u00f6bb mint \u00f6t munkak\u00e9pes kor\u00fa jutott egy id\u0151skor\u00fara a BB tengely orsz\u00e1gaiban, ma m\u00e1r alig h\u00e1rom. A r\u00e9gi\u00f3 minden orsz\u00e1ga id\u0151s\u00f6dik, de…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":281,"featured_media":137525,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5354],"tags":[5373,4798,63,5511],"class_list":["post-137518","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bb-tengely","tag-bb-tengely","tag-eloregedes","tag-portfolioblogger","tag-ratko-korszak"],"yoast_head":"\nA Ratk\u00f3-korszak ma is alak\u00edtja Magyarorsz\u00e1g demogr\u00e1fiai hely\u00e9t - HOLDBLOG<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Harminc \u00e9ve m\u00e9g t\u00f6bb mint \u00f6t munkak\u00e9pes kor\u00fa jutott egy id\u0151skor\u00fara a BB tengely orsz\u00e1gaiban, ma m\u00e1r alig h\u00e1rom.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/hold.hu\/holdblog\/bb-tengely-eloregedes\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"hu_HU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Ratk\u00f3-korszak ma is alak\u00edtja Magyarorsz\u00e1g demogr\u00e1fiai hely\u00e9t - 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