{"id":69987,"date":"2021-03-16T11:00:14","date_gmt":"2021-03-16T10:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hold.hu\/holdblog\/?p=69987"},"modified":"2021-03-17T09:56:00","modified_gmt":"2021-03-17T08:56:00","slug":"amit-nem-gondoltal-1848-marcius-15-rol","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hold.hu\/holdblog\/amit-nem-gondoltal-1848-marcius-15-rol\/","title":{"rendered":"Amit nem gondolt\u00e1l 1848. m\u00e1rcius 15-r\u0151l"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>A nyit\u00f3k\u00e9p Preiszler J\u00f3zsef rajza a Pilvax k\u00e1v\u00e9h\u00e1zr\u00f3l<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Az \u00e9rt\u00e9kalap\u00fa befektet\u0151k er\u0151ss\u00e9g\u00e9nek tekinthet\u0151, hogy sok elemz\u00e9s \u00e9s munka \u00e1ltal az \u00e1tlagn\u00e1l rem\u00e9lhet\u0151leg jobb becsl\u00e9st adnak egy-egy v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 gazdas\u00e1gi folyamatr\u00f3l. Ugyanakkor, \u00e1ltal\u00e1nos probl\u00e9ma, hogy a folyamat sorsd\u00f6nt\u0151 esem\u00e9nyeinek id\u0151z\u00edt\u00e9s\u00e9re igencsak rossz es\u00e9lyekkel tudunk becsl\u00e9sekbe bocs\u00e1tkozni. Eml\u00e9kszem p\u00e9ld\u00e1ul, hogy 2010 nyar\u00e1n m\u00e1r t\u00e9ma volt, hogy a jap\u00e1n jennek el\u0151bb-ut\u00f3bb le kell \u00e9rt\u00e9kel\u0151dnie, teh\u00e1t mi megtessz\u00fck t\u00e9tjeinket ellene (80-85 k\u00f6r\u00fcli USDJPY \u00e1rfolyam k\u00f6rny\u00e9k\u00e9n j\u00e1rtunk). A jen nem mozdult sehov\u00e1. Ett\u0151l f\u00fcggetlen\u00fcl az elemz\u0151 koll\u00e9g\u00e1k elmondt\u00e1k ugyanezt egy \u00e9v m\u00falva, s\u0151t k\u00e9t \u00e9v m\u00falva is. \u00c9s l\u00e1m, 2012 tel\u00e9t\u0151l 2013 m\u00e1jus\u00e1ig, \u00e9rt\u00e9ke negyed\u00e9t elvesz\u00edtve 100 f\u00f6l\u00e9 lend\u00fclt a doll\u00e1r\/jap\u00e1n jen \u00e1rfolyam, az az\u00f3ta eltelt \u00e9vekben pedig nem is ment m\u00e1r t\u00f6bb\u00e9 ez al\u00e1. Teh\u00e1t, a v\u00e1rt folyamat sz\u00e9lsebesen \u00e9s nagy er\u0151vel v\u00e9gbe ment. Azonban igen kev\u00e9s fogalmunk volt el\u0151zetesen r\u00f3la, hogy ez mondjuk az \u00e9vtized mely r\u00e9sz\u00e9ben t\u00f6rt\u00e9nik meg.<\/p>\n<p>Most, hogy t\u00fal vagyunk m\u00e1rcius 15. \u00fcnnep\u00e9n, szeretn\u00e9m felh\u00edvni r\u00e1 a figyelmet, hogy 1848-ban ez a nap is mennyire el\u0151re megbecs\u00fclhetetlen k\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00e9nyek k\u00f6z\u00f6tt zajlott le. A t\u00f6bbs\u00e9g szerintem nem is tudja, milyen kis csoport \u00e1ltal ir\u00e1ny\u00edtva t\u00f6rt\u00e9nt meg legdics\u0151bb felkel\u00e9s\u00fcnk. Igaz, a t\u00e1vlati szeml\u00e9l\u0151 sz\u00e1m\u00e1ra valamilyen hasonl\u00f3 esem\u00e9ny, valahol a k\u00f6rnyez\u0151 id\u0151szakban v\u00e1rhat\u00f3 volt.<\/p>\n<p>1848 eleve a forradalmak \u00e9ve lett Eur\u00f3p\u00e1ban. Febru\u00e1r v\u00e9g\u00e9n a francia n\u00e9p m\u00e1r el\u00fcld\u00f6zte a kir\u00e1ly\u00e1t, Lajos F\u00fcl\u00f6p\u00f6t, \u00e9s kiki\u00e1ltotta a k\u00f6zt\u00e1rsas\u00e1got. M\u00e1rcius 11-\u00e9n a b\u00e9csi, majd m\u00e1snap a magyar fiatalok is megfogalmaztak k\u00f6vetel\u00e9seket. Miut\u00e1n 13-\u00e1n kit\u00f6rt B\u00e9csben a felkel\u00e9s, 14-\u00e9n a budapesti fiatalok kis csoportja is elhat\u00e1rozta, hogy m\u00e1snap reggel 8-kor gy\u00fclekeznek, \u00e9s \u00e9rv\u00e9nyt szereznek a saj\u00e1t, 12 pontb\u00f3l \u00e1ll\u00f3 list\u00e1juknak. K\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fck a 25 \u00e9ves Pet\u0151fi S\u00e1ndor meg\u00edg\u00e9rte, hogy m\u00e9g az \u00e9jjel \u00edr egy verset is az alkalomra. Ez lett a Nemzeti dal.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/hold.hu\/holdblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/Pet\u0151fi-S\u00e1ndor.jpg\" rel=\"lightbox[69987]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone\" src=\"https:\/\/hold.hu\/holdblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/Pet\u0151fi-S\u00e1ndor.jpg\" width=\"398\" height=\"636\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Pet\u0151fi S\u00e1ndor (a k\u00e9p Barab\u00e1s Mikl\u00f3s m\u0171ve)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Teh\u00e1t, volt egy \u00f3ri\u00e1si forradalmi hev\u00fclet, amelyben valamilyen nagy hatalommal b\u00edr\u00f3, befoly\u00e1sos (ma \u00fagy mondan\u00e1nk \u201einfluencer\u201d) k\u00f6r \u00e9letre h\u00edvta a felkel\u00e9s\u00fcnket? Nos, nem teljesen. Pet\u0151fi m\u00e1r hajnalban elment a Pilvax-ba (amely am\u00fagy az\u00e9rt volt n\u00e9pszer\u0171, mert a k\u00e1v\u00e9 mell\u00e9 ingyen j\u00e1rt egy kis reggeli). Csup\u00e1n k\u00e9t embert tal\u00e1lt itt. \u00c1tmentek a k\u00e1v\u00e9h\u00e1zb\u00f3l el\u0151k\u00e9sz\u00fclni (az ekkor 23 \u00e9ves) J\u00f3kai M\u00f3rhoz. Majd, amikor visszat\u00e9rtek a kihirdetett reggel 8-as id\u0151pontra, kider\u00fclt, hogy \u00f6sszesen hatan j\u00f6ttek el (vel\u00fck egy\u00fctt). Ennyi volt az eg\u00e9sz. Hat huszon\u00e9ves sr\u00e1c, akik k\u00f6z\u00fcl egy Pet\u0151fi nev\u0171 fel\u00e1llt, \u00e9s a k\u00e1v\u00e9h\u00e1z asztal\u00e1n\u00e1l a m\u00e1sik \u00f6tnek felolvasta a Nemzeti dalt. De k\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fck is Vasv\u00e1ri P\u00e1l konkr\u00e9tan lel\u00e9pett csajozni napk\u00f6zben, \u00edgy a d\u00e9lut\u00e1nra a csapat \u00e1ltal \u00f6sszehozott felvonul\u00e1st m\u00e1r lek\u00e9ste. (Term\u00e9szetesen nem szeretn\u00e9m a fiatal urak addigi \u00e9rdemeit kisebb\u00edteni. Nem \u00e1tlagos h\u00fasz\u00e9vesek voltak. J\u00f3kai m\u00e1r vezette az \u00c9letk\u00e9pek c\u00edm\u0171 \u00fajs\u00e1got, \u00e9s Pet\u0151fi m\u0171vei is orsz\u00e1gosan ismertek voltak. De, hogy re\u00e1lisan l\u00e1ssuk, ma \u00fagy mondan\u00e1nk, hogy Pet\u0151finek volt 3.000 k\u00f6vet\u0151je. Ennyi p\u00e9ld\u00e1nyban lehetett eladni az 1847-es versesk\u00f6tet\u00e9t.)<\/p>\n<p>V\u00e9gs\u0151 soron teh\u00e1t volt egy forradalmi id\u0151szak, amely v\u00e9gigs\u00f6p\u00f6rt Eur\u00f3p\u00e1n. Meg volt a t\u00e1rsadalmi ig\u00e9ny \u00e9s a kisz\u00e1m\u00edthat\u00f3 folyamat. Azonban nincs az a gazdas\u00e1gi el\u0151rejelz\u0151, aki megmondta volna, hogy ez a hat fi\u00fa \u00e9pp egy m\u00e1rcius 15-i nap reggel\u00e9n fel fog kerekedni, v\u00e9gigj\u00e1rja az egyetemeket, benyit az el\u0151ad\u00f3kba, felolvassa t\u00f6bb helyen a 12 pontot vagy \u00e9pp a Nemzeti dalt, \u00e9s d\u00e9lre m\u00e1r \u00f6tezres t\u00f6meget gy\u0171jt maga mell\u00e9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A nyit\u00f3k\u00e9p Preiszler J\u00f3zsef rajza a Pilvax k\u00e1v\u00e9h\u00e1zr\u00f3l Az \u00e9rt\u00e9kalap\u00fa befektet\u0151k er\u0151ss\u00e9g\u00e9nek tekinthet\u0151, hogy sok elemz\u00e9s \u00e9s munka \u00e1ltal az \u00e1tlagn\u00e1l rem\u00e9lhet\u0151leg jobb becsl\u00e9st adnak&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":42,"featured_media":69988,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2545],"tags":[63],"class_list":["post-69987","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-apponyi","tag-portfolioblogger"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - 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