{"id":78225,"date":"2021-11-24T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2021-11-24T11:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hold.hu\/holdblog\/?p=78225"},"modified":"2021-11-24T15:19:39","modified_gmt":"2021-11-24T14:19:39","slug":"miert-gyengul-ennyire-a-lira","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hold.hu\/holdblog\/miert-gyengul-ennyire-a-lira\/","title":{"rendered":"Mi\u00e9rt gyeng\u00fcl ennyire a l\u00edra?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Erdogan \u00e9s a devizapiac esete: a gazdas\u00e1g a kompromisszumokr\u00f3l (is) sz\u00f3l.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">T\u00f6r\u00f6korsz\u00e1g eln\u00f6k\u00e9t, Recep Tayp Erdogan-t a nemzetk\u00f6zi sajt\u00f3 nem sorolja a legdemokratikusabb vezet\u0151k k\u00f6z\u00e9. E v\u00e9leked\u00e9s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/08\/18\/business\/west-democracy-turkey-erdogan-financial-crisis.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">sz\u00e1mos dologra visszavezethet\u0151<\/a>, de a gazdas\u00e1gban tal\u00e1n a jegybank esete illusztr\u00e1lja a legjobban a helyzetet. A jegybanki f\u00fcggetlens\u00e9gnek nagy el\u0151nyei vannak, nem v\u00e9letlen\u00fcl lett kital\u00e1lva, \u00e9ppen az elszabadult, a saj\u00e1t \u00fajrav\u00e1laszt\u00e1s\u00e1t mindenek f\u00f6l\u00e9 emel\u0151 politikusok megzabol\u00e1z\u00e1s\u00e1ra. Erdogan viszont a jegybank szerep\u00e9r\u0151l olyannyira m\u00e1sk\u00e9pp v\u00e9lekedik, hogy az ut\u00f3bbi \u00e9vekben szok\u00e1s\u00e1v\u00e1 v\u00e1lt tetsz\u00e9s szerint v\u00e1ltogatni a jegybank vezet\u0151it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Erdogan eln\u00f6k jegybank ir\u00e1nti \u00e9rdekl\u0151d\u00e9se abb\u00f3l fakadhat, hogy a monet\u00e1ris politik\u00e1nak alapvet\u0151 r\u00e1hat\u00e1sa van a gazdas\u00e1g n\u00f6veked\u00e9s\u00e9re. Mint valamennyi politikus, T\u00f6r\u00f6korsz\u00e1g eln\u00f6ke nem kedveli a magas kamatokat. Ennek az az oka, hogyha magas a hitel \u00e1ra, az lass\u00edtja a gazdas\u00e1g n\u00f6veked\u00e9s\u00e9t, mivel visszafogja a hitelkeresletet \u00e9s a p\u00e9nz forg\u00e1si sebess\u00e9g\u00e9t. A jegybanknak azonban \u2013 az esetek t\u00f6bbs\u00e9g\u00e9ben \u2013 magas kamatokat kell szabnia (teh\u00e1t szigor\u00fa monet\u00e1ris kond\u00edci\u00f3kat), amennyiben az infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 ellen k\u00edv\u00e1n k\u00fczdeni.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-mi-rt-gond-a-deviza-le-rt-kel-d-se\">Mi\u00e9rt gond a deviza le\u00e9rt\u00e9kel\u0151d\u00e9se?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2021 elej\u00e9n Erdogan <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-turkey-cenbank-idUSKBN2BN1I1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">elt\u00e1vol\u00edtotta<\/a> poz\u00edci\u00f3j\u00e1b\u00f3l Naci Agbal jegybankeln\u00f6k\u00f6t, mivel monet\u00e1ris politik\u00e1j\u00e1t t\u00fal szigor\u00fanak \u00edt\u00e9lte meg. Hely\u00e9re \u015eahap Kavc\u0131o\u011flu ker\u00fclt, aki hajland\u00f3 volt Erdogan ig\u00e9nyeinek eleget t\u00e9ve cs\u00f6kkenteni az ir\u00e1nyad\u00f3 kamatokat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A laz\u00edt\u00f3 monet\u00e1ris politika azonban olyan luxus, amit a felt\u00f6rekv\u0151 orsz\u00e1gok emelked\u0151 infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 eset\u00e9n nem engedhetnek meg maguknak. Ennek oka, hogy a kevesebb kamatot (\u00e9s alacsonyabb re\u00e1lhozamot) biztos\u00edt\u00f3 l\u00edra le\u00e9rt\u00e9kel\u0151ik a devizapiacon, ami visszacsatol\u00e1si mechanizmust ind\u00edt el: mivel a l\u00edra le\u00e9rt\u00e9ktelenedett az import megdr\u00e1gult, \u00edgy T\u00f6r\u00f6korsz\u00e1g de facto infl\u00e1ci\u00f3t kezd el import\u00e1lni. A magasabb infl\u00e1ci\u00f3 pedig tov\u00e1bb gyeng\u00edti a l\u00edr\u00e1t \u00e9s a v\u00e9geredm\u00e9ny: tov\u00e1bbi le\u00e9rt\u00e9kel\u0151d\u00e9s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2021 okt\u00f3ber\u00e9ben Erdogan <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/turkeys-erdogan-fires-central-bank-officials-fueling-economic-uncertainty-11634209321\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u00fajabb k\u00f6zponti bank\u00e1rokat t\u00e1vol\u00edtott el hivatalukb\u00f3l<\/a>, \u00edgy tov\u00e1bbi kamatcs\u00f6kkent\u00e9seket tett lehet\u0151v\u00e9. A legut\u00f3bbi kamatcs\u00f6kkent\u00e9sre meglehet\u0151sen drasztikusan reag\u00e1lt a piac.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/hold.hu\/holdblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/abraham-torok-03-1-scaled.jpg\" rel=\"lightbox[78225]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"616\" src=\"https:\/\/hold.hu\/holdblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/abraham-torok-03-1-1024x616.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-78255\" srcset=\"https:\/\/hold.hu\/holdblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/abraham-torok-03-1-1024x616.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/hold.hu\/holdblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/abraham-torok-03-1-300x181.jpg 300w, https:\/\/hold.hu\/holdblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/abraham-torok-03-1-768x462.jpg 768w, https:\/\/hold.hu\/holdblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/abraham-torok-03-1-scaled.jpg 1000w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A leg\u00fajabb esem\u00e9nyek<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A l\u00edra gyeng\u00fcl\u00e9se tov\u00e1bb s\u00falyosbodotott, a doll\u00e1r ellen t\u00f6bb mint 10 sz\u00e1zel\u00e9kot vesz\u00edtett \u00e9rtek\u00e9b\u0151l. Ez m\u00e9g a t\u00f6r\u00f6k fizet\u0151eszk\u00f6z eset\u00e9n is durva napi le\u00e9rt\u00e9kel\u0151d\u00e9snek mondhat\u00f3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Erdogan, aki kor\u00e1bban kijelentette, hogy am\u00edg \u0151 hatalmon van, addig k\u00fczdeni fog a magas kamatok ellen, most tal\u00e1lkozik a k\u00f6zponti bank eln\u00f6k\u00e9vel. K\u00e9rd\u00e9ses, hogy Erdogan hajland\u00f3-e megh\u00e1tr\u00e1lni T\u00f6r\u00f6korsz\u00e1g fizet\u0151eszk\u00f6z\u00f6s\u00e9nek er\u0151s\u00edt\u00e9se \u00e9rdek\u00e9ben.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A t\u00f6r\u00f6k k\u00f6zponti bank azt nyilatkozta, hogy a l\u00edra a fundament\u00e1lis \u00e9rt\u00e9k\u00e9t\u0151l messze alul\u00e9rt\u00e9kelt, de csak k\u00fcl\u00f6n\u00f6sen magas volatilit\u00e1s eset\u00e9n hajland\u00f3 beavatkozni. M\u00e1s sz\u00f3val: kamatemel\u00e9shez (inform\u00e1lisan) Erdogan beleegyez\u00e9se kell, devizapiaci intervenci\u00f3hoz pedig a t\u00f6r\u00f6k jegybanknak nincs el\u00e9g tartal\u00e9ka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Jelenlegi v\u00e9lem\u00e9ny<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A piac sz\u00e9ls\u0151s\u00e9ges mozg\u00e1sok eset\u00e9n hajlamos t\u00fal\u00e9rt\u00e9kelni a kock\u00e1zatokat, \u00edgy az \u201eindokoltn\u00e1l\u201d \u00e9rdemben jobban le\u00e9rt\u00e9kelni az adott eszk\u00f6zt. Historikus \u00e9rtelemben a l\u00edra re\u00e1l \u00e9rt\u00e9ke sz\u00e9ls\u0151s\u00e9gesen alacsony szintet \u00e9rt el.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/hold.hu\/holdblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/abraham-torok-04-1-scaled.jpg\" rel=\"lightbox[78225]\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"708\" src=\"https:\/\/hold.hu\/holdblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/abraham-torok-04-1-1024x708.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-78257\" srcset=\"https:\/\/hold.hu\/holdblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/abraham-torok-04-1-1024x708.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/hold.hu\/holdblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/abraham-torok-04-1-300x207.jpg 300w, https:\/\/hold.hu\/holdblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/abraham-torok-04-1-768x531.jpg 768w, https:\/\/hold.hu\/holdblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/abraham-torok-04-1-scaled.jpg 1000w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Erdogan \u00e9s a devizapiac esete: a gazdas\u00e1g a kompromisszumokr\u00f3l (is) sz\u00f3l. T\u00f6r\u00f6korsz\u00e1g eln\u00f6k\u00e9t, Recep Tayp Erdogan-t a nemzetk\u00f6zi sajt\u00f3 nem sorolja a legdemokratikusabb vezet\u0151k k\u00f6z\u00e9&#8230;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60,"featured_media":78235,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3768],"tags":[3554,2618,63,2825,2617],"class_list":["post-78225","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ifkovics-abraham","tag-deviza","tag-erdogan","tag-portfolioblogger","tag-torok-lira","tag-torokorszag"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Mi\u00e9rt gyeng\u00fcl ennyire a l\u00edra? - HOLDBLOG<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/hold.hu\/holdblog\/miert-gyengul-ennyire-a-lira\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"hu_HU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Mi\u00e9rt gyeng\u00fcl ennyire a l\u00edra? - HOLDBLOG\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Erdogan \u00e9s a devizapiac esete: a gazdas\u00e1g a kompromisszumokr\u00f3l (is) sz\u00f3l. T\u00f6r\u00f6korsz\u00e1g eln\u00f6k\u00e9t, Recep Tayp Erdogan-t a nemzetk\u00f6zi sajt\u00f3 nem sorolja a legdemokratikusabb vezet\u0151k k\u00f6z\u00e9....\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/hold.hu\/holdblog\/miert-gyengul-ennyire-a-lira\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"HOLDBLOG\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/alapblog\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-11-24T11:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-11-24T14:19:39+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/hold.hu\/holdblog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/shutterstock_1873003690-scaled.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"523\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Ifkovics \u00c1brah\u00e1m\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Szerz\u0151:\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Ifkovics \u00c1brah\u00e1m\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Becs\u00fclt olvas\u00e1si id\u0151\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 perc\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hold.hu\\\/holdblog\\\/miert-gyengul-ennyire-a-lira\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hold.hu\\\/holdblog\\\/miert-gyengul-ennyire-a-lira\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Ifkovics \u00c1brah\u00e1m\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hold.hu\\\/holdblog\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/58cdd3519e45905e0469ae042d70bd4f\"},\"headline\":\"Mi\u00e9rt gyeng\u00fcl ennyire a l\u00edra?\",\"datePublished\":\"2021-11-24T11:00:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-11-24T14:19:39+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hold.hu\\\/holdblog\\\/miert-gyengul-ennyire-a-lira\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":660,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hold.hu\\\/holdblog\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hold.hu\\\/holdblog\\\/miert-gyengul-ennyire-a-lira\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hold.hu\\\/holdblog\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/shutterstock_1873003690-scaled.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"deviza\",\"Erdogan\",\"portfolioblogger\",\"t\u00f6r\u00f6k l\u00edra\",\"T\u00f6r\u00f6korsz\u00e1g\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Ifkovics \u00c1brah\u00e1m\"],\"inLanguage\":\"hu\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hold.hu\\\/holdblog\\\/miert-gyengul-ennyire-a-lira\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/hold.hu\\\/holdblog\\\/miert-gyengul-ennyire-a-lira\\\/\",\"name\":\"Mi\u00e9rt gyeng\u00fcl ennyire a l\u00edra? 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